XRP is trading near $1.46 on May 12, 2026, and the weekly chart on CoinMarketCap tells a clean story. Price opened the week at $1.4068, sold off to around $1.38 between May 8 and May 9, then recovered steadily and briefly touched $1.50 on May 11 before settling back to current levels.
That is a full round trip plus a modest gain. Not a bad week on paper. But the chart is almost irrelevant right now because everything for XRP comes down to one event: the Senate Banking Committee markup of the CLARITY Act scheduled for May 14.
What the Weekly Chart Shows
The dip to $1.38 mid-week was not a breakdown. It matched the same support zone that has held XRP multiple times in 2026. Buyers showed up, volume picked up from May 9 onwards, and the recovery pushed price above the $1.45 level that had been rejecting XRP for months.
Briefly touching $1.50 on May 11 was meaningful. It was the first clean print above $1.45 in weeks. The pullback to $1.46 since then is orderly, not a rejection. XRP is holding above the old resistance, which is now acting as support.
The 200-day MA sits at $1.4238. Price is above it. The MA7 is at $1.4260 and MA14 at $1.4037, both below current price. The short-term structure is about as clean as XRP has looked all year.
XRP/USD Chart: $1.45 Flips From Resistance to Support
The levels are simple from here.
Hold $1.45 on a 4H closing basis and the breakout above the old resistance stays intact. Above that, $1.55 is the next target, and a weekly close there opens a retest of $1.80.
Lose $1.45 and XRP slides back into the range it just escaped. Below $1.40, the next meaningful support is $1.35 and then $1.28. A drop to $1.20 requires a macro shock on top of the regulatory disappointment.
Thursday Is the Only Thing That Matters
The CLARITY Act Senate Banking Committee markup is scheduled for May 14. This is the bill that would formally classify XRP as a commodity under US law, permanently resolving the regulatory question that has kept institutional capital on the sidelines.
The bill already passed the House in July 2025 with a 294-134 bipartisan vote. The Senate has been the sticking point. Polymarket odds of full passage in 2026 spiked to nearly 80% last week and briefly touched 90% intraday over the weekend before sliding back to 62% after five major banking trade groups, including the American Bankers Association, rejected the stablecoin compromise.
Senator Bernie Moreno has warned publicly that missing the May markup could shelve the bill until 2030, as a new Congress would have to restart the entire process. The White House has a July 4 target for full congressional passage.
The two scenarios are this clear cut:
A positive markup on Thursday holds XRP above $1.45 and likely triggers a fast move toward $1.65 to $1.80 short-term. Full Senate passage by July 4, paired with ETF inflows, puts $3 to $5 on the table by year-end, which is the mainstream analyst consensus if the bill passes.
A failed markup sends XRP back toward $1.30, with $1.20 possible if macro conditions deteriorate at the same time.
Spot XRP ETFs pulled in $34.2 million in the past week alone, with cumulative inflows now crossing $1.32 billion. That demand does not disappear if the markup fails, but it slows considerably without a clear regulatory path.
Key Levels
Support: $1.45 / $1.40 / $1.35 Resistance: $1.50 / $1.55 / $1.80
Bottom Line
XRP had a solid week. Held $1.38, recovered above $1.45, touched $1.50. The weekly chart is the best it has looked in months.
None of that matters as much as Thursday. The CLARITY Act markup on May 14 is a binary event for XRP. A pass holds the breakout and opens $1.65 to $1.80. A failure sends price back below $1.40 and removes the biggest catalyst XRP has for the rest of 2026.
Neutral to bullish short-term on the chart. Everything else depends on the Senate.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
