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Ahmed Balaha
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Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse says there is a 90% chance the US CLARITY Act passes by the end of April. If that happens, years of crypto regulatory gray zone could finally close.
Garlinghouse pointed to serious momentum building in Washington after months of Senate delays.
Lawmakers are pushing toward a March 1 negotiation deadline set by the White House. If the bill clears, it would give institutions the clear legal definitions they have been waiting for before possibly entering spot markets in size.
Key Takeaways
The Signal: Garlinghouse raises passage probability to 90% by April, exceeding prediction market estimates.
The Timeline: White House targeting March 1 for final deal on stablecoin provisions.
The Impact: Defines clear lanes for CFTC and SEC oversight, removing headwinds for utility tokens.
Why Is The Clarity Act Happening Now?
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, H.R. 3633, is at a turning point.
The House already passed it in July 2025 with a strong 294 to 134 bipartisan vote. But the Senate hit the brakes over jurisdiction fights. That is where things got stuck.
Now momentum looks different. Garlinghouse says fresh meetings with banking leaders and crypto execs helped clear the logjam.
Regulators seem ready too. After the Senate Agriculture Committee moved a related draft on January 29, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said the SEC and CFTC are coordinating through “Project Crypto.”
The industry cannot run on enforcement alone anymore. It wants rules.
Breaking Down the US Clarity Act Odds
Garlinghouse’s 90% odds are even more bullish than the market.
Prediction markets are pricing the bill at around 78% by year end, which makes an April finish feel ambitious. Still, he framed it as a necessary move.
The main sticking point is stablecoins. Lawmakers are debating whether platforms can offer yield style incentives. That issue already slowed Senate Banking discussions earlier this year.
While Washington debates, Ripple is not waiting. Since 2023, it has deployed $3B into acquisitions to strengthen custody and treasury infrastructure.
What Does This Mean for XRP Price?
For XRP traders, real legislation is the last box to check.
Ripple already won a court ruling that XRP is not a security. But a federal law would lock that status in. That kind of clarity could open the door for institutions at scale.
Garlinghouse said corporate treasurers are looking at stablecoins and cross border payments. The interest is there. What they need is federal guardrails before moving serious capital.
If April delivers, we could see a fast rotation back into large caps with real utility, especially if it lines up with the current market pullback.
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