Things are not looking good for the Solana (SOL) price right now, in wake of a weak debut of a new Solana futures product on the CME and as SOL continues to trend lower.
Last around $124, the Solana price remains in a clear downtrend from the record highs it hit in January near $300, and is currently down around 57% from these peaks.
Recent rejections of the 21DMA in recent weeks, as well as a strong rejection of the 200DMA earlier this month, suggest that the bears remain very much in control of this market.
And weak interest from institutional investors in the new Solana futures product on CME will give the bears further ammunition to push the price lower.
First day for Solana CME futures.
$12m notional volume
pic.twitter.com/OTSfw90tJf
— adam (@abetrade) March 18, 2025
Bearish conditions in the Solana market are justified in the context of broader macro worries, which have taken a heavy toll on risk appetite in recent weeks, and declining on-chain activity.
While the US economy continues to hold up well in early 2025, risks to the medium-term outlook have risen substantially thanks to Trump’s trade wars and D.O.G.E-related government spending cuts.
Trump administration officials and even the President himself have warned that a period of adjustment could be coming that could be painful for the economy and markets.
And, all the while, since peaking in the immediate aftermath of the Trump and Melania meme coin launches in January, Solana’s on-chain activity has been in decline.
Solana transaction fees, a proxy for on-chain activity, just reached its weakest levels since September, suggesting lackluster demand for block space, per The Block.
How Low Could the Solana Price Go?
The fundamental and technical pictures both look downbeat for the Solana price. A further decline feels highly likely.
But how low might the Solana price go? Well, $110 has been a solid area of support going back to mid-2024.
If that level breaks, a rush down towards the near notable area around $80 seems likely. But depending on how bad things get on the macro front, Solana could see a much bigger drop than that.
Let’s say the US economy does fall into recession, but stubbornly high inflation complicates the Fed’s easing efforts, and the federal government seems reluctant to step in with an increase in stimulus via more government spending.
That could revive talks of a new “great recession”. And this could be an environment where Solana collapses all the way back to its early 2023 levels in the $15-30 area.
That would mark a decline of as much as 90% from its January highs. In the world of crypto, this is not unheard of decline.
In fact, in altcoin markets its to be expected. And Solana already has a history of similar declines, dropping 97% from its 2021 peak above $260 to its 2022 trough around $8.
Buy the Solana Dip?
Savvy investors would view a Solana price drop back to $30 as a generation investment opportunity.
That’s because, while macro uncertainties could persist for some time, the future for crypto is looking brighter than it ever has before.
The industry has been given a historic thumbs up from the US government and global Bitcoin adoption is surging.
The Trump administration is stuffed with crypto HODLers and supporters. David Sacks, the current White House Crypto and AI Czar was a former investor.
Medium-term macro risks aside, the longer-term outlook for the crypto industry looks as strong as its ever looked.
Macro fears will eventually ease and, if financial conditions ease substantially in the coming years, crypto markets are set to pop.
Solana will be no exception. Indeed, no one should be surprised to see Solana hit $1000 per token by the end of Trump’s four-year term.
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