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Ahmed Balaha
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Coinbase earnings just broke its streak, and not in a good way. After eight straight winning quarters, it posted a brutal $667 million net loss in Q4 2025. That is a punch to the face.
As crypto prices slid from their yearly highs, the exchange completely missed Wall Street revenue expectations.
Revenue came in at $1.78 billion. Sounds big, but it was below the $1.85 billion analysts expected. Transaction revenue was the real damage. Down 37% to $982.7 million.
That tells you everything about trader activity right now.
Key Takeaways
- Coinbase reported a $667 million net loss, its first profit miss since Q3 2023.
- Revenue fell 21.5% YoY to $1.78 billion, missing analyst expectations.
- Transaction fees plummeted 37% as retail traders exited the market.
- Shares (COIN) dipped 7.9% intraday but rebounded nearly 3% after hours.
Is the Bull Market Officially Over? How Coinbase Can Survive It
That $667 million loss is not just a bad quarter. It screams deeper cycle weakness. A big chunk of it came from unrealized losses on Coinbase own crypto holdings after prices collapsed from the October 2025 highs.
When Bitcoin falls from nearly $126,000 to the mid $60k range, nobody walks away clean. Not even the exchanges.
This kind of volatility feels similar to the uncertainty during the FTX fallout days. Brian Armstrong is still calling this downturn psychological.
Retail traders are barely active. Transaction revenue, which is the core engine of the business, dried up as volume vanished.
Casual money is staying on the sidelines. And that is the last thing Coinbase needed.
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COIN Stock Resilience or Dead Cat Bounce?
Even after that ugly earnings report, COIN stock actually climbed 2.9% in after-hours, sitting near $145. Sounds crazy, right?
But the stock had already dropped 7.9% during the regular session. Traders probably priced in the disaster before the numbers even hit.
Still, the outlook is not exactly comforting. Subscription and services revenue was the only real bright spot, up 13% to $727.4 million.
That helped soften the blow. But management is already guiding lower for Q1 2026, expecting that figure to fall into the $550 to $630 million range. That is not small.
If even the so-called stable revenue starts shrinking, the safety cushion gets thin fast. And if that happens, a retest of the $139 zone, near the 52-week lows, would not be surprising at all.
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