- Bitcoin (BTC) could decline to around $107,000 and $109,000 in the near term.
- Over $9.4 billion worth of assets have been moved to centralized exchanges.
- An analyst has observed that the recent rally lacked retail interest, and could spell doom for the market.
Bitcoin (BTC) faces one of its major bearish tests in days as profit-taking actions increase its reserves on various centralized exchanges. Reviewing CryptoQuant data, we found that more than 80,810 BTC ($9.4 billion) was moved to exchanges yesterday, July 15, increasing selling pressure and forcing the price to plunge below $118k.
According to our analyst’s interpretation, exchange inflows suggest holders are preparing to offload. Historically, this precedes a significant price fall to a major accumulation zone.
Confirming this potential downtrend, 21Shares crypto research strategist Matt Mena highlighted a structural imbalance between the demand and supply, increasing the possibility of a prolonged correction.
On another observation, Bitwise head of research André Dragosch pointed out that retail investors did not largely support the recent Bitcoin rally. According to him, there was a massive decline in Google search interest for the term “Bitcoin” even when the price was approaching its new all-time high.
Above all, Dragosch expects the situation to get even worse if US President Donald Trump proposes a tariff. Earlier, Trump described Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell as “too slow and late”, as highlighted in our previous news brief. In a different story we reported on, Trump even threatened to fire him.
If Trump’s proposed tariffs end up being more severe than markets currently anticipate, or if Powell signals that rate cuts are further off than expected, we could see risk assets broadly reprice lower, including Bitcoin.
Major Support Ranges for Bitcoin (BTC)
Per our research, the $93,000–$97,000 and the $101,000–$109,000 ranges acted as strong buying zones and levels where Bitcoin activities increased sharply. Meanwhile, the $107,000–$109,000 range is expected to be the main point of rebound. The reason is that Bitcoin hovered within this zone for multiple days before breaking out.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $118.2k, quite above the Fibonacci retracement level at $117,293 as discussed earlier. Analysts have identified this as the first major support level after declining from its all-time high level of $123k. Apart from this, the 0.618 retracement at $107,726 has been recognized as the “golden pocket” where some rebounds have been witnessed on the “journey to the top”.
The 0.382 ($113,637) and 0.5 ($110,682) levels have also been recognized as the intermediate levels. However, there are no historical data that support any strong buying activities around these zones, making them less reliable in terms of support.
Currently, Bitcoin still has positive gains across all the major trading sessions as it surges by 0.92% on the 24-hour time frame. On the weekly price chart, the asset has risen by 8.5%, while its monthly gains stand at 10%. One major decline recorded in its overall market data is the 24-hour trading volume. According to CoinMarketCap, this has fallen by 42% to $82 billion.
Contrary to the correction claims, an analyst called Stockmoney Lizards has predicted that Bitcoin could hit $140,000 in the near term. As detailed in our previous post, he believes that the asset also has the potential to reach $200k by the end of the year. Similarly, analyst Peter Brandt has predicted that Bitcoin could reach $150k by August, as highlighted in our last analysis.
