Journalist
Hassan Shittu
Journalist
Hassan Shittu
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Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire a $2 billion stake in Polymarket, a fast-growing crypto-based prediction platform.
According to a Wall Street Journal report citing people familiar with the matter, the deal could be announced as soon as Tuesday, potentially valuing Polymarket between $8 billion and $10 billion.
Shares of ICE climbed more than 4% in pre-market trading following the news, as investors reacted to what could mark the company’s first significant push into the crypto and prediction market sectors.
The move indicates ICE’s deepening interest in blockchain-powered financial technologies that bridge traditional markets with decentralized data prediction models.
Founded in Manhattan, New York, Polymarket enables users to trade on real-world outcomes spanning politics, economics, weather events, and global affairs. The platform has rapidly grown in influence amid rising demand for on-chain event forecasting tools, which combine market dynamics with crowd-sourced intelligence.
From Thiel to Trump Jr.: Strategic Moves Fuel Polymarket’s $10B Valuation
Polymarket’s potential $10 billion valuation would represent a tenfold increase from just a few months ago. In June 2025, Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund led a $200 million funding round, valuing the firm at $1 billion.
Since then, Polymarket has attracted major backers, including Donald Trump Jr., who joined its advisory board in August following his firm 1789 Capital’s multimillion-dollar investment.
The expansion comes on the heels of regulatory clearance, following the Department of Justice (DOJ) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) closing investigations into the firm in July, paving the way for a full-scale U.S. reentry.
Polymarket has also announced a collaboration with Elon Musk’s X platform, integrating its markets with xAI’s Grok chatbot for real-time predictive analytics.
In September, the company rolled out a 4% annualized yield feature on select long-term geopolitical and political markets, including wagers on the 2028 U.S. presidential election and leadership outcomes in countries such as Russia, China, and Israel.
Polymarket’s U.S. Return Stalls as Government Shutdown Freezes CFTC Operations
Polymarket’s long-awaited relaunch in the United States has hit an unexpected roadblock, as the ongoing government shutdown halts key regulatory functions at the CFTC.
While the prediction market platform appeared poised to reenter the U.S. through its acquisition of QCEX, a designated contract market (DCM), the timing now looks increasingly uncertain.
The shutdown, which began on October 1, has effectively frozen the CFTC’s self-certification process, an essential step for DCMs to launch new contracts.
Historically, the commission has suspended all self-certifications during government shutdowns, pending the restoration of normal operations. This precedent dates back to previous shutdowns in 2013, 2018, and 2019, with the longest lasting 35 days.
Self-certification enables DCMs to notify the CFTC of their plans to list new contracts, such as prediction markets for political events or sports outcomes. If the commission does not intervene, the product may proceed to market without formal “approval.”
However, in practice, the CFTC has paused all such processes during shutdowns, leaving exchanges like Polymarket and Kalshi unable to launch new offerings.
While current policy suggests Polymarket must wait until the government resumes full operations, Acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham could change course.
As the commission’s only current member, Pham wields considerable discretion and has previously expressed disagreement with halting self-certifications during shutdowns.
Still, the agency’s limited capacity poses a challenge. The CFTC has furloughed over 94% of its workforce, leaving just 31 of 543 employees on duty. The regulator’s public filings portal has shown no activity since September 30, and no new self-certifications have been processed since then.
QCEX, the Polymarket-owned DCM, reportedly submitted filings for four new market types, covering sports winners, totals, and point spreads, on October 1. However, none have appeared on the CFTC’s public portal, suggesting they remain unprocessed.
For Polymarket, the timing is critical. Every day without U.S. access gives rival Kalshi more room to consolidate its market share as the country’s leading regulated prediction market.
Polymarket’s U.S. comeback has been years in the making. In November 2024, the firm faced a Department of Justice investigation for allegedly serving U.S. users without CFTC registration. The FBI reportedly raided founder Shayne Coplan’s residence during the probe.
The investigation was dropped in July 2025, and in September, Coplan said on X that Polymarket had received the “green light” from the CFTC to launch, following exemptions from minor reporting requirements. Yet, with the government shutdown paralyzing the regulator, that momentum may now stall indefinitely.
Polymarket’s own prediction markets reflect growing skepticism, currently assigning a 70% probability that the shutdown will persist until October 15 or later. Until then, Polymarket’s long-anticipated American relaunch remains on hold.
