ETFs, RLUSD, and Supply; Full Bull and Bear Case Explained

XRP price today is down 2.39% to $1.11 today, underperforming a slightly negative market.
XRP ETFs pulled in nearly $1.47 billion in cumulative inflows through late June.
An estimated 200 million to 300 million XRP reach the market every single month.
The CLARITY Act still lacks the 60 Senate votes needed to beat a filibuster now.

XRP is down 2.39% to $1.11 today, underperforming a slightly negative market, in a session driven primarily by broader macro pressure rather than anything specific to the token itself.

The selloff isn’t isolated to crypto. Roughly $2.8 trillion was wiped out across stocks, gold, silver, and crypto in the past 24 hours, following a disappointing Alphabet earnings report that raised concerns about AI spending outpacing profits. Trump has also told Axios he is close to ordering a larger military strike on Iran, adding another layer of macro fear across risk assets.

Technical Picture

XRP ran up to $1.16 earlier this week before flushing back down to $1.10 support. The broader trend remains down, with no evidence yet that a major low is in place. Important resistance sits between $1.19 and $1.42, a zone that hasn’t even been tested yet.

If the current bounce fails and price breaks below $1.14, the analyst sees a reasonable bear market target near $0.74 to $0.75, potentially aligned with Bitcoin forming its own cycle low around September or October.

ETFs, RLUSD, and Supply; Full Bull and Bear Case Explained

CLARITY Act Remains Stuck

Crypto’s regulatory centerpiece, the CLARITY Act, is still short of the votes needed to pass. The bill needs 60 votes in the Senate, and Republicans currently don’t appear to have all 50 of their own members locked in, let alone the additional Democratic support required.

Senators from Utah and Texas have echoed bank concerns about deposit flight, a senator from Louisiana has voiced hesitation, and at least one Republican has flatly opposed the ethics provisions as written. Senator Elizabeth Warren has publicly urged colleagues to vote against the bill entirely.

Not everyone in finance opposes it. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon has publicly called for advancing the legislation. Delays in releasing bill text have pushed negotiations dangerously close to the August 7 recess deadline, according to political reporting cited in recent coverage, leaving a shrinking window to get a vote scheduled at all.

What’s Actually Changed for XRP

Away from daily price swings, XRP’s underlying legal and market position has genuinely shifted over the past year:

The five-year SEC lawsuit is fully resolved, with both sides dropping appeals and the original $125 million penalty reduced to $50 million.
Seven US spot XRP ETFs now exist, following Canary Capital’s XRPC launch in November 2025.
XRP ETFs pulled in nearly $1.47 billion in cumulative inflows through late June, spanning seven to eight consecutive weeks of net buying before that streak broke with a $7.18 million outflow the week of July 6.
Ripple’s own stablecoin, RLUSD, has grown to a $1.5 billion market cap, roughly tripling over the past year, with Mastercard piloting settlements on Ripple’s infrastructure.

Why the Price Hasn’t Followed

Despite that progress, several structural factors continue to work against XRP specifically:

ETF funds hold only about 1% to 2% of XRP’s circulating supply, limiting their price impact even during strong inflow streaks.
RLUSD may compete with XRP rather than support it, since a dollar-backed stablecoin can move money across borders without anyone ever holding XRP. More than 45% of RLUSD supply currently sits on Ethereum rather than the XRP Ledger.
On-Demand Liquidity volume is real, but XRP is typically only held for a few seconds mid-transaction, generating volume without creating genuine demand to hold the coin long-term.
Total value locked in XRP Ledger lending and trading apps has fallen roughly 70% from its 2025 peak.
An estimated 200 million to 300 million XRP reach the market every single month from Ripple’s escrow releases, with roughly 38 billion XRP still locked and awaiting future release.
A newly launched competing stablecoin consortium, Open USD, backed by more than 140 firms including Visa, Mastercard, Coinbase, and BlackRock, positions Ripple as just one participant rather than the center of the payments infrastructure XRP was built to support.

A Possible Bottom Signal

Some experts see recent industry stress as a sign the market may be nearing a cycle low. Crypto exchange BitMEX is shutting down effective September 23. Several digital asset treasury companies and at least one crypto-focused hedge fund have also wound down operations recently, following a broader wave of deleveraging across the sector.

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