- Bitcoin has fallen 22% since its $109,000 all-time high in January 2025 and is now trading around $83,500 as market sentiment moves to “extreme fear.”
- Using proprietary metrics like MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL, Ju highlights reduced liquidity, new whale sell-offs, and declining ETF inflows.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, issued a warning that the bullish phase for Bitcoin is over. He now expects a prolonged bearish trend for the next six to twelve months for BTC price.
CryptoQuant CEO On Bitcoin Price Action
Referring to various on-chain metrics, Ju asserted that all available metrics are pointing toward the emergence of a bear market. Fresh liquidity drying up and new whales selling Bitcoin at lower prices indicate a weaker structure of the market, he believes.
“Every on-chain metric signals a bear market,” Ju wrote on X. He added, “With fresh liquidity drying up, new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices.” His measurement is based on a CryptoQuant proprietary alert system that employs Principal Component Analysis (PCA) across major on-chain metrics such as MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL.
All these are subsequently used to calculate a 365-day moving average, which identifies trend reversals in the Bitcoin market cycle. “This signal identifies inflection points where the trend of the 1-year moving average changes,” he explained. Ju added, “I’ve double-checked the data—it’s accurate.”
Ju had remained bullish for the last two years, even when there were mixed signals in the market. But now he perceives an evident move towards a bearish cycle. “I hate to reverse my opinion, but it really seems pretty clear now that we’re headed into a bear market,” he admitted.
Ju cited a number of indicators that defend his bearish sentiment. Realized cap-based gauges, which monitor the aggregate capital flowing into the Bitcoin market, show insufficient new capital inflows. Furthermore, Bitcoin recorded high trading volumes near the $100,000 price but could not maintain higher levels. Another significant issue is the negative ETF inflow trend in the recent past, which has been ongoing for three weeks.
“I can’t keep sharing just my hopes when the data keeps signaling bearish,” Ju said. While he is bearish, he explained that he is not shorting Bitcoin and still holds his spot positions.
BTC Market Conditions & Technical Indicators
Bitcoin price has experienced a steep correction since it hit its all-time high of more than $109,000 in January 2025, a record that was set during President Trump’s inauguration. The BTC price has since fallen 22% and is now trading around $83,500.
Over the past few days, the price of BTC has stayed within a limited range between $82,000 and $84,000, which shows increasing uncertainty in the marketplace, as mentioned in our previous story. Sentiment has continued to fall into the “Extreme Fear” zone, which indicates cautious market behavior.
Technical analysts have spotted a large cup-and-handle formation in the long-term price chart of Bitcoin, where the rounded bottom was created between 2021 and mid-2024 and then followed by the handle formation during the second half of 2024. The recent drop has returned Bitcoin to the pattern’s neckline, which should serve as a strong support level.
Whilst Elliott Wave analysts are convinced that Bitcoin is in the last phase of a bigger five-wave impulse formation. Based on this model, Bitcoin may bounce back from its current support levels and continue its upward trend soon.
