The $BTC price has been at the top of its bear flag since Wednesday. Here we are on Friday, and Bitcoin has still not broken out. Are things starting to look a little ominous? If the king of cryptocurrencies has not broken out by the end of this week, investors might begin to get cold feet. Could a pullback be on the way?
A possible pullback to $72,000?
Source: TradingView
The 4-hour time frame illustrates how the $BTC price reached the top of the bear flag by following an ascending channel all the way from the bottom. Instead of the price now seeking to break out, it appears to be bunching below the bear flag trendline. Also, to give a slightly bearish bias, the price could be about to fall through the mid-line of the channel, and this has always previously led the price back to the bottom of the channel.
While this ascending channel formation does lead the price higher, the exit from this type of structure is mostly to the bottom. Therefore, if the price does come down there, the bottom of the channel, plus the $76,000 horizontal support level, will be key for the bulls to hold.
As can be seen in the above chart, a speculatory path for this next potential bearish move is drawn out in red. The measured move out of the channel could take the price down to around $72,000 – not far from a horizontal support line and a retest of the bear market trendline.
From the bullish perspective, the indicator lines for the Stochastic RSI are coming to the bottom, signalling that upside momentum could kick back in later on Friday. This could lead to another breakout opportunity, taking the price through the top of the bear flag and up to the top of the channel.
Steady downtrend in RSI – can it be broken?
Source: TradingView
The daily chart paints a great picture of the current setup. For the bullish outlook, daily candles are beginning to hold above the 100-day SMA (green line). This was last witnessed as the $BTC price rose to the bull market top. The 50-day SMA (blue line) is also rising and may be about to cross up through the 100-day SMA – an occurrence that is usually seen near the beginnings of rallies.
Nevertheless, from the bearish viewpoint, the price is still within a bear flag, and even if it broke out, it would still need to get above $98,000 in order to officially change the downtrend to an uptrend. Of course, this will probably happen at some point. It just remains to be seen if the process of this trend change is going to continue from here.
What appears to be the most convincing evidence from this chart is the steady downtrend of the RSI indicator line. This trend has been descending since November 2025 and would have to be broken for the $BTC price to continue upward.
Bullish MACD in weekly time frame
Source: TradingView
Ending on more of a bullish note, if there is a breakout for the $BTC price from here, it will have broken through very tough resistance at $78,000, as well as out through the top of the bear flag, which is normally a 30% to 40% chance.
That said, the main takeaway from the above weekly chart is the bullish looking outlook for the MACD. After going to their lowest point ever, the blue indicator line has crossed above the red signal line, while a second green bar has materialised in the histogram.
Nevertheless, it must be noted that the MACD can lag price action by 2 to several weeks, so if another dip is coming, we can’t expect the MACD to give us any forewarning.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
