Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have released their latest approval odds for spot altcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in 2025, with XRP receiving the lowest probability.
According to the latest estimates, Litecoin (LTC) leads with a 90% probability of approval, followed by Dogecoin (DOGE) at 75% and Solana (SOL) at 70% — XRP trails the others with a 65% chance of approval.
Balchunas highlighted:
“Keep in mind all of this stuff (except Litecoin which was always high) was <5% prior to election. So these are really good odds relatively speaking, and will likely grow the more we see these go through the typical process.”
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently acknowledged the 19b-4 forms of Litecoin ETF, boosting their approval odds. Balchunas recently stated that LTC products check “all the boxes,” seeing no reason for the SEC to withdraw the filings.
Additionally, the analysts believe Litecoin is likely to be considered a commodity since its a fork of Bitcoin that carries the same proof-of-work consensus algorithm and did not conduct any pre-sales.
The same goes for DOGE, which the analysts believe will also be considered a commodity, likely for the same reason as LTC and Bitcoin (BTC). Meanwhile, the SEC labeled SOL and XRP as securities in different lawsuits.
This is probably why DOGE ETFs have 5% higher odds of approval than Solana despite the SEC not acknowledging DOGE funds’ 19b-4 forms as of press time.
Significant changes
However, the analysts noted that Commissioner Hester Peirce’s Crypto Task Force could review the SEC’s classification of XRP and SOL as securities by the end of 2025. This could significantly change the odds of the ETFs related to these cryptos being approved.
Regarding the SEC’s attention to filings, Seyffart said that both XRP and DOGE ETFs will likely be acknowledged this week.
Meanwhile, Balchunas said that while their current analysis only includes 1933 Act filings, similar to BlackRock’s IBIT Bitcoin ETF, alternative structures such as 40 Act futures-based ETFs or Cayman-subsidiary funds could also emerge.
With increasing pressure on the SEC to provide regulatory clarity and growing institutional demand for crypto investment products, 2025 could mark a significant turning point for spot altcoin ETFs.
Seyffart and Balchunas have already predicted a “wave of crypto ETFs” this year due to a more favorable regulatory landscape in the US under the current administration.
Mentioned in this article
