On Thursday, June 26th, Bitcoin witnessed a slowdown in recovery momentum as its price stalled below the $108,000 mark. This led to a neutral ‘doji’ candle in the daily chart after a notable rebound earlier in the week, driven by optimism surrounding the ceasefire announcement between Iran and Israel. However, recent on-chain data reveals a potential for continued recovery, as Bitcoin supply dynamics highlight a notable shift from retail investors to high-net-worth buyers, which historically aligns with a sustained bullish trend. Will BTC’s new high be reached soon?
Bitcoin Weak Hands Retreat as Strong Hands Lead the Charge
Bitcoin’s supply-demand dynamic has recorded a notable transition from retail investors to large institutional buyers and high-net-worth individuals. According to a recent insight from CryptoQuant analysts, retail investors (those holding less than 1 BTC) have significantly reduced their positions since last year. The numbers show current retail holdings of 1.69 million BTC, with a 54.5k Bitcoin reduction YoY.
A negative correction in their accumulation over the past 12 months suggests retailers are hesitant to hold as prices rise.
In contrast, the large Bitcoin holders, those holding over 1,000 BTC, have significantly boosted their holdings to 15.57 million BTC, accounting for a 507.7k BTC increase year-on-year. These investors are accumulating at an average rate of 1.46k BTC, with a strong inflow of +0.86 BTC.
Adding to the bullish note, the institutional investors are absorbing seven times more BTC than retail traders are selling. As the post-halving issuance has dropped to about 450 BTC per day, the overall demand for Bitcoin continues to outpace the available supply.
Despite the strong signals, the data indicates that retail FOMO (fear of missing out) has not yet fully materialized. Unlike the previous cycle, where retail buying led to major market tops, the current selling pressure from them accentuates that Bitcoin has more room to grow.
BTC Flag Breakout Sets Eyes On $137,000 High
In a four-day rally, the Bitcoin price bounced from $99,752 to $107,544, projecting a 7.87% jump. The potential ceasefire between Israel and Iran was the primary news that bolstered this recovery.
However, the tension between these nations continues to persist, and therefore, volatile assets like cryptocurrencies are struggling to maintain momentum.
By press time, Bitcoin trades at $107,807, standing less than 2% away from challenging the key resistance of the bull flag pattern. Under the influence of this pattern, the BTC price underwent a 6-week correction, which resonated within two downsloping trendlines, allowing it to recuperate its bullish momentum.
A successful flip of the overhead trendline will accelerate the bullish momentum and drive an initial leg up to $120,000. If the pattern holds, the post-breakout rally could extend to $137,000.
Also Read: Coinbase to Launch US Crypto Perpetual Futures On July 21
