Crypto Journalist
Amin Ayan
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The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has granted no-action relief to four prediction market operators, easing enforcement pressure on platforms that have faced mounting regulatory scrutiny.
Key Takeaways:
- The CFTC granted narrow no-action relief to four prediction markets, reducing immediate enforcement risk.
- Platforms must fully collateralize all contracts and publish time-and-sales data to maintain eligibility.
- The move comes amid a surge in prediction market activity, raising expectations for long-term regulatory readiness.
In a notice published Thursday, the agency said it would not pursue action against Polymarket US, LedgerX, PredictIt and Gemini Titan, Gemini’s event-contracts arm, for failing to meet certain swap data reporting and record-keeping obligations, so long as they comply with a set of conditions outlined in the letters.
The CFTC emphasized that the relief is narrow and mirrors treatment given to other designated contract markets and clearing organizations.
CFTC Signals Flexibility as Prediction Markets Build Compliance Systems
The no-action letters do not change existing law but signal a willingness by regulators to give emerging prediction markets room to operate as they refine their compliance systems.
To qualify for continued relief, the platforms must fully collateralize all contracts, with reserves covering every position in full.
They are also required to publish time-and-sales data for each transaction once it is executed.
These conditions aim to ensure transparency and mitigate counterparty risk, especially in markets that allow trading on outcomes ranging from sports to political events and cultural oddities.
Prediction markets fall under the CFTC’s jurisdiction as designated contract markets, triggering extensive reporting rules that many newer platforms have struggled to meet.
The new relief reduces the threat of immediate enforcement but does not absolve the companies from longer-term compliance expectations.
The regulatory pause comes during a standout year for event-driven trading. Prediction markets have surged in popularity throughout 2025, with some platforms posting transaction activity on par with mid-tier crypto exchanges.
Kalshi recorded $5.14 billion in trading volume over the past 30 days, according to DefiLlama, while Polymarket registered $1.9 billion over the same period.
Major crypto firms are also eyeing the space. Crypto.com has launched its own prediction market product, expected to integrate with Trump Media, and site code indicates Coinbase is exploring a similar offering.
While the CFTC’s no-action stance offers temporary breathing room, the sector now faces increased expectations to demonstrate transparency, collateral integrity and readiness for full regulatory oversight.
SEC Clears DTCC to Launch Landmark Tokenization Program
Yesterday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission also approved a major step toward blockchain-based securities markets by granting the Depository Trust Company, a DTCC subsidiary, a rare no-action letter.
The decision allows DTC to begin tokenizing Treasuries, index ETFs and assets tied to the Russell 1000 starting in late 2026 on pre-approved blockchains.
Such letters are uncommon, signalling strong regulatory confidence in the framework DTCC proposed and marking a broader shift in the SEC’s approach to blockchain infrastructure.
The SEC has taken a noticeably more open stance toward blockchain initiatives over the past year.
Two decentralized physical infrastructure network (DePIN) projects received similar no-action treatment, and in late September, the agency cleared investment advisers to work with state trust companies serving as crypto custodians.
In August, the agency issued a similar letter to Double Zero, surprising many in the industry and fueling optimism that the SEC, now led by Chair Paul Atkins, is taking a more measured approach after years of tension under former chair Gary Gensler.
