Author
Hongji Feng
Author
Hongji Feng
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Bitcoin slipped to a 24-hour low near $94,755 before rebounding toward $96,000, a move that put round-number support back in play and kept focus on whether selling pressure came from leverage, flows, or macro jitters.
The drawdown followed a week of weaker closes after early-November levels near $110,000, reinforcing a shift from momentum to repair.
The sentiment gauge sits in fear territory, with readings around the low 20s this week, which aligns with heavier risk reduction rather than a discrete headline shock. That tone meets a well-timed update from 10x Research, whose October 22 “Bear Market Watch” called for a first leg toward $100,000 while flagging fading on-chain and derivatives support, a stance consistent with how this pullback has traded so far.
What Drove The Latest Breaks
Macro cues have leaned hawkish, and fund data show stress concentrated in Bitcoin vehicles. Nearly $1.0 billion of net outflows were seen from Bitcoin-focused products in the week through November 3, even as other coins saw offsetting interest, which helps explain why the heaviest pressure sat on BTC spot pairs. Pricing across majors reflected that tilt, with Bitcoin leading declines and Ethereum lagging shortly after.
Community chatter tracks that split: trading forums and research feeds focused on the mix of ETF redemptions, tighter basis, and thinner order books during U.S. hours, while the fear index slide echoed a rotation from dip-buying to protection.
That mosaic fits a reset rather than a single catalyst and leaves the next phase tied to whether flows stabilize into the weekend.
Liquidity, Basis, And Spot Depth To Watch
Repair phases tend to start with better depth on BTC and ETH pairs, since tighter spreads and thicker ladders indicate that market makers are willing to warehouse inventory through the overnight cycles.
When that rebuild appears together with calmer funding and a basis that drifts toward neutral, rallies last longer because cash demand replaces squeezes that fade at the close. Kaiko and exchange dashboards help confirm these mechanics during busy windows, and they pair well with simple checks on intraday spread behavior around U.S. data drops.
Stablecoin supply trends add a second filter. Net issuance that turns higher for more than a few sessions often coincides with firmer spot settlement, while flat or negative supply leans against durable recoveries even when prices bounce intraday. Tracking issuance alongside exchange balances helps separate real demand from transient covering, especially when ETF flows pull in the other direction.
Bitcoin Price (Source: CoinMarketCap)
10x Research’s Track Record And Current Read
10x Research stresses a process that blends on-chain flows, derivatives positioning, and macro context. The team has a documented record of calling year-end direction in 2022, 2023, and 2024, while warning that the usual fourth-quarter fuel was missing.
Their update keeps attention on whether funding cools, depth rebuilds, and realized loss pressure eases on-chain, since those shifts often precede better closes rather than just better opens.
Ethereum needs a steadier close to pull basis back toward neutral, and large-cap tokens such as Solana and XRP typically firm after BTC depth improves rather than before it, which is why the first checks sit with Bitcoin order books, ETF flow direction, and the fear gauge drift over consecutive sessions. If those series stabilize together, the reset turns constructive; if they split, volatility lingers.
