In the first quarter of 2025, the memecoin market cap has dropped 65% from a three-month high peak of $116.7 billion to $40.46 billion. Amid the downfall, Dogecoin is struggling to resurface above the $0.15 mark.
The Dogecoin market price has dropped from $0.46 to a current price of $0.1475 over the past 120 days. This accounts for a massive plunge of nearly 70%. Is there a reversal possibility for Dogecoin?
Dogecoin Price Analysis
The declining trend has breached the $0.15 crucial support level. Based on the Fibonacci levels, the declining trend is currently testing a crucial support of the 23.60% level at $0.1379.
With a lower price rejection, Dogecoin trades with an intraday gain of 4.07%, signaling a potential comeback. This will likely challenge the long-coming resistance trendline, holding Dogecoin’s bullish growth in check.
Due to the prevailing downfall, the 100 and 200-day EMA lines have recently given a negative crossover. This completes the bearish alignment of the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMA lines.
However, supporting the possibility of a bullish recovery, the daily relative strength index reflects a bullish divergence. The RSI line is hovering slightly above the oversold region, but reflects a bullish divergence compared to the previous bottom formed in the oversold region. This is a potential bounceback in Dogecoin.
Ali Martinez Key Support Amid Whale Sell-off
As per Ali Martinez, a crypto analyst, the crypto whales are offloading Dogecoin at a massive pace. Based on the data from Santiment, Ali reveals 1.32 billion DOGE sold by whales in the past 24 hours. This has dropped the whale holdings to 70.88 billion DOGE tokens.
Whales sold over 1.32 billion #Dogecoin $DOGE in the last 48 hours, as shown by data from @santimentfeed! pic.twitter.com/K3n6sD03Kl
— Ali (@ali_charts) April 9, 2025
The massive plunge in the past 48 hours reflects the weakening confidence of crypto whales in the meme coins as the global market uncertainty increases. Hence, if the market conditions continue to remain volatile due to the ongoing tariff war, Dogecoin could witness a massive surge in supply.
Since October 2023, #Dogecoin $DOGE has respected a rising trendline that now converges with the 61.8% Fib retracement at $0.13, making this a key support level to watch. pic.twitter.com/fSlblEcpiu
— Ali (@ali_charts) April 8, 2025
However, limiting the possibility of a downside move, Ali Martinez also highlights a long-coming support trend line in action. Coinciding with the 67.80% Fibonacci retracement at $0.13, this crucial support could propel the Dogecoin prices higher.
The trend line has been intact since October 2023 and remains the immediate support level for Dogecoin.
Dogecoin Futures
Despite the rising uncertainty, Dogecoin traders are optimistic for a bullish comeback. Over the past 24 hours, the fluctuations in the Dogecoin futures are growing sharper.
However, the recent turnaround has propelled the long positions from 48.55% to 52.87%. This boosts the long-to-short ratio from 0.9436 to 1.1218 in just 4 hours. This marks a strong underlying bullish confidence in Dogecoin.
Can Dogecoin Price Shoot Up Again?
Based on the Fibonacci levels and the price action analysis, the recovery run will likely face the 20-day EMA line at $0.1656. This coincides with the long-standing resistance trend line.
In case of a bullish breakout, the uptrend will likely challenge the 50% retracement at $0.20. On the flip side, a breach under the $0.13 support level will likely challenge the $0.10 psychological support.
